The New England Patriots led the Indianapolis Colts by six points with two minutes to go. It was fourth down, the ball was on the New England 28 yard line, and the Patriots needed just two yards for a first down that would almost certainly have sealed a victory. Conventional wisdom called for a punt, but Coach Belichick decided to go for it. After the Patriots fell just short of the first down, the Colts marched into the end zone and won the game.
Suddenly, there's a whirlwind of debate amongst the pundits, including how statistically speaking, the Patriots had a better chance of winning the game by 'going for it' and not punting. It didn't work out that way in this instance, but repeating the same scenario again and again, it would work more often than it wouldn't.
Other Factors
But while some want to break down Belichick's decision into being all about the numbers, there are other variables and human factors to consider. Decision-making doesn't just come down to stats, in football, in business, or in life.
1) You need to know what condition you (and your team) is in (and what they're capable of in that moment) - What was the chance that Manning, who had thrown two interceptions that night, would get the Colts all the way back down the field for a touchdown in two minutes if they punted? There's probably a stat for that, but the Patriots defense was also tired. On another day, they might have been stronger in the same situation. But everyone has an off day, so you not only need to know what shape you and your people are in, you need to know when someone's having an off day and what they're capable of in the particular moment.
2) Take a moment to consider different possible outcomes - What if the Patriots had made the two yards? They'd have likely sealed up the win. (And Belichick would have been heralded for having the guts to make the play.) If they punted, would the Colts have made it all the way back down the field? (It's possible. We've seen it happen before.) If they failed to convert, the Colts would have had the ball at about the Patriots 30-yard line, and what would be the possibility of them making it down the field from there? Any decision we make has more than one possible outcome. You make the pitch and you make the sale. Or you don't. Or someone comes back and wants to negotiate. What are all the possible outcomes of a decision and which ones are you prepared for?
3) Don't forget other factors like time (and pressure) - Especially when we look back on a decision we've made, we tend to underestimate the effects the amount of time we had to make that decision or the pressure we may have felt at the time had on the decision we ultimately made. Take note and take that under consideration next time.
Second-Guessing Will Drive You Crazy
It's easy to crunch the numbers when you have all day to do it after the decision doesn't bring the desired result. And sure. You want to take a look back and learn from your mistakes. But we do this all the time -- in life and in business. We have a certain amount of information. We only know what we know at that moment. And we make a decision. Unfortunately, there are times when we make what is a good decision at the time, but it still doesn't turn out the way we want it to. That's just life. Risk brings reward. It's also called a 'risk' for a reason.
No Guts, No Glory
Do I hope that anytime the Patriots get into that situation again they'll punt? Nope. I like that they went for it. But that's me. It's easy to say 'he should have made the safe choice', but safe choices aren't always the way to go. You don't get to four Superbowls and win three of them by always playing it safe. And if you want to live a life half-lived, if you want to keep your business where it is, sure.....play it safe every time. You'll be guaranteed the same results you've been getting.
Besides, when it comes down to it, your career, your business, your life is about the long haul. It's made up of a series of choices, a series of plays. You win some. You lose some. You make the best decision based on what you know in the moment. You deal with the outcome. And when you lose? You learn, you get stronger, and you just go on to play another day. So make the best decision you can and just go for it already.
All the best!
deb
